The Seattle Seahawks beat the Los Angeles Rams by one point in Week 5, failing to cover as 1.5-point favorites. The Rams will be a one-point favorite when the two teams meet again in Week 14. Our Sunday Night Football prop bets and picks takes a look to see if this game plays out any differently.
Week 14 NFL Sunday Night Football prop bets and picks: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 47.5 over/under), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Neil Bisman’s Sunday Night Football prop bets and picks
Sunday Night Football prop bet odds provided by FanDuel
One of the constant themes I’ve seen in trying to discredit the Seattle Seahawks is that with just a +36-point differential, the Seahawks have no business being 10-2. And maybe there’s some truth to that. Nine out of the Seahawks’ 10 wins this season have been by one possession. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Offense has not been the issue for Seattle. The Seahawks are third in the NFL in total yards per game (390.3) and rushing yards per game (143.7) and fifth in points per game (27.4). Even though it seems like quarterback Russell Wilson is putting the Seahawks on his back on a weekly basis, Seattle only ranks 10th in passing yards per game (246.0).
It’s on defense where the Seahawks look a whole lot lesser than
their 10-2 record. The Seahawks rank 29th in passing yards allowed
per game (269.3) and 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (4.6)
and points allowed per game (24.4) – which collectively puts them on par with a
bunch of teams below .500, let alone the NFC’s best record.
That’s why I will be loading up my Sunday Night Football prop bets
with members of the Los Angeles Rams.
One of my Sunday Night Football prop bets will be Rams quarterback Jared Goff to throw over 265.5 yards (-108). Goff threw for 424 yards last week in what was his most complete game of the season. Hopefully, that’s a positive sign in Goff turning around what has largely been a disappointing season for the fourth-year quarterback.
In addition to not defending the passing game well, one of Seattle’s biggest issues has been getting after the quarterback, where the Seahawks rank 29th in sacks (23). Starting defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney (core) and Ziggy Ansah (neck) are both currently questionable for Sunday’s game, with starting linebacker Mychal Kendricks (hamstring) doubtful.
Week 14 NFL picks against the spread: Ravens vs. Bills, Patriots vs. Chiefs, more
The lack of quarterback pressure is where Goff really has a chance
to take advance Sunday.
The Rams have been decimated by injuries on the offensive line,
which has forced Goff out of his comfort zone.
If Goff is going to have a big game Sunday night, he’s going to need one of his receivers to step up. Goff’s primary target this season has been Cooper Kupp, who is averaging 78.8 receiving yards per game. There’s no reason to think Kupp can’t over 64.5 (-112) receiving yards as one of our Sunday Night Football prop bets against such a suspect pass defense.
The last of my Sunday Night Football prop bets focusing on an individual Ram will be running back Todd Gurley to rush for more than 62.5 yards (-112) – a number Gurley has surpassed in three of his last four games.
Because I’m leaning towards the Rams against what could be a tired
Seahawks team that just played this past Monday night, in addition to Rams
-1, I will be playing Rams to win by 1-13 points (+170).
The Rams defense is strong in all aspects and I think they can
wear down Wilson and company in this spot. Wilson improved his record last week
to 24-8-2 against the spread over his career in night games (including the playoffs).
Let’s hope he used up a lot of that magic last Monday against the Minnesota
Vikings, with Goff and the Rams getting the better of him Sunday.
Sunday Night Football prop bet odds provided by PointsBet
The Seattle Seahawks are playing their best
football of the season, winners of five straight with impressive wins in San
Francisco and against the Minnesota Vikings in that span.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams have taken a
step back from last year’s team that made it to the Super Bowl, largely due to
running back Todd Gurley’s decline in performance and having a takeaway
difference of -4, 22nd in the NFL.
The Seahawks are also a perfect 6-0 on the road
this season and beat the Rams in Seattle on Oct. 3.
Gurley is +120 to get 100+ rushing yards on
Sunday Night Football. With Gurley struggling, I would avoid any Sunday
Night Football prop bets involving the three-time Pro Bowl back.
Gurley has not had 100 rushing yards in a
regular season game since Week 12 … of last season. It’s been over a calendar
year since we’ve seen a vintage Gurley game, so I wouldn’t bet on one against a
Seahawks defense that is allowing just 99 yards on the ground per game – eighth
best in the NFL.
It also remains to be seen if the Rams can hang
with NFL MVP candidate Russell Wilson in the passing game.
Wilson is +120 to have at least three total
touchdowns on Sunday Night Football.
Wilson has been brilliant lately against the
Rams, throwing ten touchdowns against zero interceptions over his last three
games against Los Angeles.
The Seahawks quarterback also has three rushing
touchdowns this season and those would also count for this NFL prop bet.
There is also the Sunday Night Football prop
bet Wilson over 200+ passing yards
in the game and the Seahawks leading at the half (-105).
I’d be careful here as while Wilson has been
fantastic with 200+ passing yards in ten of his 12 games this season, the
Seahawks have been slow starters even during their streak.
Pete Carroll’s club has trailed at halftime in
three of their last four games. What makes that even more shocking is that
they’ve come back to win all those games.
Lastly, consider wide receiver D.K. Metcalf collecting at least 50+ receiving
yards in a Seahawks win (+180).
The rookie Metcalf has 50+ receiving yards in eight of 12 games this season, including three of his last four.
With veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Josh
Gordon occupying star cornerback Jalen Ramsey’s attention, Metcalf can continue
to fly under the radar.
Prediction: Seahawks (+1) win, over 47 combined points
I understand these two division rivals played a shootout earlier
this year that concluded in a one-point Seattle win, but I can’t see this game
being that close again.
The Seahawks are playing their best football of the season and the
Rams offense had been pretty mediocre before drubbing the Cardinals last
Before the victory over the Cardinals, the Rams had put up a
combined 35 points in their previous three games. The Seahawks offense might
just be too much for Jared Goff, Gurley and the Rams to hang with.
With that said, I expect to see points put up on the board. Eight
of the Seahawks’ 12 games this season have 47 or more total points.
Matt Schmitto, RotoGrinders sports betting editor
Sunday Night Football prop bet odds provided by PointsBet
Tied atop the NFC with a 10-2 record, the Seattle Seahawks
are in position to claim a bye in the NFL playoffs. Seattle may be 10-2, but
with a series of close wins including a two-point victory over Pittsburgh in
Week 2, a one-point win at home against the Rams in Week 5, a four-point win in
Cleveland and an upset in San Francisco, it’s taken an awful amount of luck to
be where they are.
Against all odds, Seattle has more wins through 12 games
than any team in NFL history with a +36-point differential or less. To put that
in perspective, the Ravens have a +187-point differential, the Patriots +177,
49ers +166, and the Saints +50 — all teams with identical 10-2 records.
Seattle’s luck runs out Sunday night as they make the trip
to L.A. for their second divisional game against Sean McVay and the Los Angeles
The Rams opened as 2.5-point underdogs, but the line moved
3.5 points by Friday, flipping the script and making the Rams 1-point home
favorites. We’re a little late to the party, but I like the Rams to win
outright on Sunday Night Football. We also get reduced juice at PointsBet, so I
still don’t mind backing the Los Angeles Rams -1 (-105).
As someone who plays a lot of daily fantasy sports, I love that PointsBet has player props for fantasy scoring (based on ESPN’s PPR scoring). One that sticks out Sunday night is Tyler Lockett Over/Under 12.5 fantasy points.
From podcasts, to in-depth articles, player projections and lineup building tools, RotoGrinders has a ton of resources to help with fantasy sports, or in this case, fantasy player props. RotoGrinders projects Tyler Lockett to go for 16.64 PPR points — that’s over one-third more than the line at PointsBet. We project Lockett to have 78 receiving yards. While you can bet Lockett to get 75+ yards (-105), there’s better value in betting Lockett Over 12.5 fantasy points.
For my last Sunday Night Football prop bet, I’m looking at
Rams tight end Tyler Higbee +2200 to score the first touchdown. Higbee
comes off a massive 107-yard performance with one touchdown and seven
receptions in Week 13. Higbee was going against an exploitable Arizona
Cardinals defense, but he saw the lion’s share of snaps because fellow tight
end Gerald Everett was sidelined with a knee injury.
Higbee could be in store for more snaps in Week 14 with Everett out Sunday night. The last time the Rams and Seahawks met, Rams tight ends combined for 10 catches and over 180 yards. Everett was healthy at the time, but Higbee still contributed with 47 yards on 3 receptions of his own. Don’t be too surprised if Higbee finds the end zone. At 22-1 odds, I’m hoping he’s the first one there.