Fantasy Football Week 5: Jameis Winston an easy start, but Doug Martin's a tougher call on Thursday Night Football … –

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The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on who to start in your leagues.

The higher the number next to a player’s name, the more confident you should be to start him. If a player isn’t listed, don’t start him.

To find a specific player, use your search function — CTRL-F on PCs and Command-F on Macs. If neither of those are options, or if you’re on a mobile device, you can scroll by game.

If you’re still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) and I’ll give it a look, time permitting.

Patriots at Buccaneers

Patriots Buccaneers
Tom Brady (8.1) Jameis Winston (8.2)
Mike Gillislee (7.3) Jacquizz Rodgers (5.0)
James White (5.35) Doug Martin (5.7)
Dion Lewis (2.9) Mike Evans (9.0)
Chris Hogan (7.9) DeSean Jackson (7.5)
Brandin Cooks (7.2) Cameron Brate (7.1)
Danny Amendola (6.3) O.J. Howard (2.8)
Dwayne Allen (3.75) Buccaneers DST (3.4)
Patriots DST (3.6)

Start Him

DeSean Jackson

/ Buccaneers
(2017 stats)

TAR: 20
REC: 9
YDS: 143
TD: 1

Bill Belichick has previously contained Jackson in two prior meetings, but he doesn’t have the defensive bandwidth to do it again in Week 5. In what should be a shoot-out, expect Jackson to draw single coverage and Jameis Winston to target him on deep passes. Winston’s already targeted him nine times on deep passes through three games.

PPR Start

James White

/ Patriots
(2017 stats)

ATT: 18
YDS: 73
TD: 0
TAR: 26
REC: 22
REC YDS: 173

Bank on the Patriots taking advantage of two backup linebackers starting for the Buccaneers — Kendall Beckwith and Adarius Glanton. Beckwith has particularly been impressive but one-on-one matchups with their running backs and tight ends against these guys figure to be in the cards. White has had eight-plus catches in two of his last three and should be in line for more targets.

Chargers at Giants

Chargers Giants
Philip Rivers (6.5) Eli Manning (7.6)
Melvin Gordon (8.4) Wayne Gallman (6.2)
Keenan Allen (8.5) Shane Vereen (3.7)
Tyrell Williams (4.8) Odell Beckham (8.9)
Hunter Henry (5.6) Sterling Shepard (5.2)
Antonio Gates (5.2) Brandon Marshall (3.9)
Chargers DST (5.6) Evan Engram (5.0)
Giants DST (8.2)

Sneaky Sleeper

Wayne Gallman

/ Giants
(2017 stats)

ATT: 11
YDS: 42
TD: 0
TAR: 2
REC: 2

Last week, Gallman notched the most rush attempts by any Giants rusher this season (11) and ran 20 routes, second-most of any Giants running back this season. Not bad for his first NFL game. Yes, his offensive line is yucky, but the Chargers have missed 49 tackles on the year (18 last week!) and don’t have a single linebacker with a positive run defense grade on Pro Football Focus. No wonder why opposing rushers are averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per catch against the Bolts. So long as Paul Perkins and Orleans Darkwa don’t interfere, expect Gallman to have a decent workload and a great chance to score.

Bills at Bengals

Bills Bengals
Tyrod Taylor (4.9) Andy Dalton (4.7)
LeSean McCoy (8.2) Joe Mixon (6.4)
Zay Jones (3.3) Giovani Bernard (4.9)
Charles Clay (7.5) A.J. Green (8.8)
Bills DST (7.8) Tyler Kroft (3.4)
Bengals DST (8.4)

Start Him

Joe Mixon

/ Bengals
(2017 stats)

ATT: 52
YDS: 136
TD: 0
TAR: 11
REC: 11

Mixon got 17 carries last week, but 12 came in the second half of a blowout win when the Browns defense stacked the box knowing the run was coming. That kind of predictability leads to 1.7 rushing averages. The Bills’ run defense has been bad lately while their pass defense has been awesome. Maybe this feels a little bit like banging your head into the wall, but it’s a good week for the Bengals to rev up Mixon’s running downs role.

Jets at Browns

Jets Browns
Josh McCown (5.9) DeShone Kizer (3.8)
Bilal Powell (8.0) Duke Johnson (5.9)
Elijah McGuire (5.3) Isaiah Crowell (5.5)
Robby Anderson (5.5) Ricardo Louis (4.4)
Jermaine Kearse (3.6) Kenny Britt (3.1)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (5.4) David Njoku (2.5)
Jets DST (8.6) Browns DST (4.6)

Sneaky Sleeper

Duke Johnson

/ Browns
(2017 stats)

ATT: 10
YDS: 57
TD: 2
TAR: 28
REC: 20
REC YDS: 207

Johnson’s had back-to-back games with double-digit Fantasy points for the first time in his career thanks to two straight games with a touchdown (also a first). But before you write him off as a score-or-bust runner, take note that his touches have trended up through the last three weeks (7, 8, 13) and last week he played 16 more snaps than Isaiah Crowell. The slot experiment is over — after playing 51 snaps as a receiver in Week 1, Johnson has played 11 snaps total in his last 123 as a receiver. Plus the Jets have allowed 8.9 yards per catch to running backs on the year, letting the position score at least once in three of four games. It’s dicey in non-PPR but Johnson seems to be on a roll, and the matchup is good.

Jaguars at Steelers

Jaguars Steelers
Blake Bortles (5.4) Ben Roethlisberger (6.8)
Leonard Fournette (8.9) Le’Veon Bell (9.8)
Chris Ivory (2.8) Antonio Brown (9.1)
Allen Hurns (6.4) Martavis Bryant (6.5)
Marqise Lee (5.8) JuJu Smith-Schuster (3.7)
Jaguars DST (5.4) Jesse James (2.2)
Steelers DST (9.2)

Risky Starters

Big Ben hasn’t looked right. His completion percentage is lower than it’s been in four years, he’s completed just three passes of over 25 yards and he’s on pace for 24 touchdowns. This despite playing with a solid receiving corps and strong offensive line. The Jaguars come into Week 5 with the No. 1 ranked defense against Fantasy quarterbacks, but it’s also their third straight game on the road.

I’d expect a cautious, conservative approach from the Steelers with a big dose of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, particularly after Brown spouted off about not getting enough looks from Roethlisberger last week. JuJu Smith-Schuster also did well in his full-time debut in the slot. All of that hurts Bryant’s outlook and makes him a boom-or-bust Fantasy play. As for Roethlisberger, he’ll need his teammates to make big plays for him — a possibility but not a guarantee. He doesn’t offer much upside.

Titans at Dolphins

Titans Dolphins
Matt Cassel (2.2) Jay Cutler (6.4)
DeMarco Murray (6.1) Jay Ajayi (8.3)
Derrick Henry (3.6) DeVante Parker (8.2)
Rishard Matthews (6.2) Jarvis Landry (7.7)
Eric Decker (2.6) Kenny Stills (3.8)
Delanie Walker (5.8) Julius Thomas (2.3)
Jonnu Smith (2.7) Dolphins DST (4.4)
Titans DST (6.0)

Risky Starter

DeMarco Murray

/ Titans
(2017 stats)

ATT: 42
YDS: 215
TD: 1
TAR: 8
REC: 6

Despite back-to-back road losses, the Dolphins held the Jets and Saints running backs to 3.2 yards over 53 carries. They’re back home and desperate for a win. One way they’ll go for that is by stacking the box and daring Titans backup quarterback Matt Cassel to throw on them. That would hurt Murray’s outlook, but not as much as seeing him split playing time with Derrick Henry like they did last week. Murray’s hamstring should be back to normal, but this is a tough spot to expect him to play like the second-round pick we drafted him to be.

49ers at Colts

49ers Colts
Brian Hoyer (2.0) Jacoby Brissett (5.7)
Carlos Hyde (8.1) Frank Gore (6.6)
Pierre Garcon (7.6) T.Y. Hilton (8.7)
Trent Taylor (2.4) Donte Moncrief (5.1)
George Kittle (2.1) Colts DST (4.8)
49ers DST (5.8)

Start Him

Pierre Garcon

/ 49ers
(2017 stats)

TAR: 33
REC: 20
YDS: 285
TD: 0

Last week was understandably bad for Garcon as he matched up frequently with cornerback Patrick Peterson. This week he’ll see a lot of Vontae Davis and Rashaan Melvin, neither of whom have been great. Davis allowed over 100 yards in his 2017 debut last week and Melvin gave up touchdowns in his past two games. With the Colts giving up 191.5 yards per game to receivers, I’d expect a bounce-back game from Garcon.

Start Him

Frank Gore

/ Colts
(2017 stats)

ATT: 61
YDS: 191
TD: 2
TAR: 7
REC: 5

Gore has come through with 10-plus Fantasy points in two of his last three. His old team has yielded at least nine Fantasy points to a running back in every game they’ve played. Gore should see plenty of opportunities to pick up yardage on the Niners, and maybe even continue to make an impact in the passing game after he caught three passes last week. He’s fine as a No. 2 Fantasy running back.   

Cardinals at Eagles

Cardinals Eagles
Carson Palmer (7.8) Carson Wentz (6.6)
Andre Ellington (5.6) LeGarrette Blount (7.1)
Chris Johnson (2.7) Wendell Smallwood (6.3)
Larry Fitzgerald (7.0) Alshon Jeffery (5.9)
Jaron Brown (6.8) Nelson Agholor (4.0)
John Brown (4.7) Torrey Smith (2.9)
J.J. Nelson (2.5) Zach Ertz (8.0)
Cardinals DST (5.0) Eagles DST (8.8)

Start Them

LeGarrette Blount

/ Eagles
(2017 stats)

ATT: 42
YDS: 249
TD: 1
TAR: 3
REC: 3

Wendell Smallwood

/ Eagles
(2017 stats)

ATT: 29
YDS: 113
TD: 1
TAR: 11
REC: 7

This is a tired Arizona defense. The Cardinals play their third game of the season at 1 ET, and they’re coming off a long overtime game — four members of the secondary played at least 90 snaps. With Blount and Smallwood averaging 25 carries per game in their past two, it looks like the Eagles have unearthed a semblance of a run game. It’ll come in handy when they put the game away against Arizona. Blount’s more likely to score, Smallwood should do more in the passing game.

PPR start

Andre Ellington

/ Cardinals
(2017 stats)

ATT: 12
YDS: 51
TD: 0
TAR: 30
REC: 19
REC YDS: 192

Bruce Arians talked up Chris Johnson as getting into game shape and noted he had two long runs called back. Don’t buy into this. The Cardinals figure to throw it a lot and Ellington is the guy for the Redbirds on third down. Over 148 snaps this season, Ellington has run a route 126 times and has 30 targets. Do the math and it means he gets a target on one of every four plays. That’s a really good thing. He’s a lock to get 10-plus Fantasy points in PPR.

Panthers at Lions

Panthers Lions
Cam Newton (7.9) Matthew Stafford (7.5)
Christian McCaffrey (7.2) Ameer Abdullah (6.5)
Jonathan Stewart (5.4) Theo Riddick (3.5)
Devin Funchess (6.9) Golden Tate (8.4)
Kelvin Benjamin (6.7) Marvin Jones (6.6)
Ed Dickson (4.2) T.J. Jones (3.4)
Panthers DST (6.2) Eric Ebron (4.0)
Lions DST (7.2)

Start Him

This might be a high-scoring game that benefits both quarterbacks, but Stafford has the better matchup. The Panthers secondary has been a mess to begin with and will be without safety Kurt Coleman for a month. It opens the door for Stafford to match the 24-plus Fantasy points that Drew Brees and Tom Brady had against Carolina over the last two weeks. It only helps that the Panthers have a top-10 run defense, likely forcing Stafford into lots of attempts.

Seahawks at Rams

Seahawks Rams
Russell Wilson (8.05) Jared Goff (5.8)
Thomas Rawls (6.0) Todd Gurley (9.3)
Eddie Lacy (5.2) Sammy Watkins (6.1)
Doug Baldwin (7.4) Cooper Kupp (5.0)
Paul Richardson (5.3) Robert Woods (4.2)
J.D. McKissic (4.9) Rams DST (7.0)
Tyler Lockett (4.6)
Jimmy Graham (7.0)
Luke Willson (3.2)
Seahawks DST (9.3)

Sit Him

Sammy Watkins

/ Rams
(2017 stats)

TAR: 16
REC: 14
YDS: 211
TD: 2

This isn’t as easy as saying Watkins faces Seattle and they’ll just wipe him away. Cornerbacks like Shaquill Griffin and Justin Coleman are the kinds of players the Rams will try to match Watkins up with. They’ll still dedicate safety coverage over the top, making it a tough option for Jared Goff to throw to. Additionally, Watkins’ lack of usage outside of the 49ers game makes him a risky choice regardless of opponent. Don’t be shocked if Cooper Kupp ends up having a decent game given his expected single coverage on shorter routes.

Ravens at Raiders

Ravens Raiders
Joe Flacco (3.6) EJ Manuel (3.4)
Alex Collins (5.8) Marshawn Lynch (7.0)
Javorius Allen (5.1) Amari Cooper (5.6)
Terrance West (2.65) Seth Roberts (4.3)
Jeremy Maclin (5.7) Cordarrelle Patterson (2.8)
Mike Wallace (4.1) Jared Cook (4.8)
Benjamin Watson (4.95) Raiders DST (7.4)
Ravens DST (5.2)

Risky starter

Alex Collins

/ Ravens
(2017 stats)

ATT: 25
YDS: 206
TD: 0
TAR: 2
REC: 0

Judging by the lack of dwindling carries for Terrance West (10) and Javorius Allen (10) over the past two weeks, expect Collins (18) to continue working the running downs for the Ravens. He’s got a good, not great, matchup as the Raiders have allowed 4.2 yards per rush and no rushing scores to running backs this year. He also has more career fumbles (four) than touchdowns (one). Maybe he gets 12-plus touches, but one fumble could wreck his day. He also won’t play much on passing downs. If you can get away from him, do so.

Packers at Cowboys

Packers Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers (9.3) Dak Prescott (9.0)
Aaron Jones (6.9) Ezekiel Elliott (9.4)
Jordy Nelson (9.2) Dez Bryant (8.3)
Randall Cobb (7.8) Terrance Williams (3.0)
Geronimo Allison (5.4) Cole Beasley (2.3)
Martellus Bennett (4.6) Brice Butler (2.1)
Packers DST (4.0) Jason Witten (2.6)
Cowboys DST (4.2)

Sit Them

Jason Witten

/ Cowboys
(2017 stats)

TAR: 28
REC: 19
YDS: 168
TD: 2

For the fourth week in a row, Bennett had an end-zone target and couldn’t catch it. Fifth time’s the charm? Nah, the Cowboys haven’t given up more than seven Fantasy points in standard scoring this season. Bennett’s OK in PPR leagues but not worth the risk in non-PPR unless all other choices are bleak. Speaking of bleak, Witten has contributed two catches over six targets in his past two games. The Packers are among the best in the league at slowing down tight ends. Dak Prescott should target elsewhere.

Chiefs at Texans

Chiefs Texans
Alex Smith (7.1) Deshaun Watson (7.7)
Kareem Hunt (9.0) Lamar Miller (7.5)
Tyreek Hill (8.0) D’Onta Foreman (2.6)
Travis Kelce (8.2) DeAndre Hopkins (8.1)
Chiefs DST (6.4) Will Fuller (6.0)
Ryan Griffin (3.0)
Texans DST (6.6)

Start Him

Deshaun Watson

/ Texans
(2017 stats)

CMP%: 64.9
YDS: 811
TD: 7
INT: 4
ATT: 19

It’s Watson’s rushing skills that not only make him appealing for Fantasy but also make him a problem for the Chiefs. Kansas City has done well against rushing quarterbacks, but guys like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and more recently Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins padded their stats with running to help them achieve statistical success. Watson will do the same, but he should also continue to play smart and not turn the ball over too much. The Chiefs have four interceptions and 11 sacks on the year but are ranked 25th against the pass.

Vikings at Bears

Vikings Bears
Case Keenum (3.1) Mitchell Trubisky (3.2)
Latavius Murray (6.7) Jordan Howard (7.7)
Jerick McKinnon (3.8) Tarik Cohen (5.55)
Stefon Diggs (8.6) Kendall Wright (4.5)
Adam Thielen (7.3) Zach Miller (3.8)
Michael Floyd (2.7) Bears DST (3.8)
Kyle Rudolph (4.4)
Vikings DST (9.4)

Start Him

Latavius Murray

/ Vikings
(2017 stats)

ATT: 14
YDS: 38
TD: 0
TAR: 2
REC: 2

We’re not expecting Murray to bust out for 5.0 yards per rush, but we are expecting him to handle the ball 15-plus times against a Bears defense that’s allowed a rushing score to a tailback in every game this year. That includes the minuscule and inexperienced Aaron Jones last week. Through four weeks, the Vikings running backs combined for 24.8 rush attempts per game. Bank on most of those falling in Murray’s lap.

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